Fire In The Hull

If you think TiVo has got the network advertisers running scared, imagine a world in which not only advertising but the configuration of your product itself becomes a matter of choice for consumers. The genius of the Firefox browser is not just that it is wickedly fast, but that it also allows third party developers to extend its functionality. As you can imagine, when the world’s ubergeeks contemplate hotting up their browsers, ad skipping and site modification are at the top of their list. But this is not just a web fringe phenomenon. With global Firefox adoption rates now gaining momentum, publishers will soon have to accept that it will be readers and not editors who will decide not only what they look at, but also in what form and at what cost. 

The numbers are already compelling. In the US, 7% of online users now use Firefox, and in Germany this is as high as 22%. Part of the attraction of the Firefox platform relative to Microsoft’s Internet Explorer is security, although there is growing evidence that the browser upstart is not without its flaws. The real power behind Firefox, however, is its expandability. Similar to the Apple II which was the first consumer PC to achieve mass adoption and featured expansion slots for third party development, Firefox’s software extensions have encouraged a community of innovation and creativity. Popular extensions include Adblocking technology, Google hacks which display results from rival search engines, integration with RSS aggregators and social bookmarking tools. Of particular interest is Greasemonkey, which is a script platform which allows people to change the way that a site looks and even bypass registration systems.

Not surprisingly, the natives are getting restless. Bennie Smith, Doubleclick’s online advertising network's privacy chief recently warned that the rise of Adblocking technology would lead to the end of free content on the web. And of course, no newspaper executive is going to be particularly happy about Firefox users automatically sharing passwords using the Bugmenot extension to access their article archives. Rather than a apocalyptic end of content as we know it, what the Firefox debate highlights is how much current web content models are antiquated and out of step with online consumer behaviour. The vast majority of newspaper sites are simply print products rudely uploaded onto the web. Accordingly, revenue models based on interrupting readers with annoying banner ads that popup or obstruct the information people are looking for are vulnerable to assault by clever technology. It is not just publishers who are to blame. Ask an advertising agency to innovate online, and they will invariably find new ways to irritate people with rich media, sound and flashing lights. Frankly, that’s just not cricket.

So, just what happens when the free content advertising model breaks down is a fascinating question. At its core, all advertising is information. Great advertising succeeds because it makes the myriad of purchasing decisions that define our lives simpler, more informed and ultimately - more enjoyable. Google’s Adwords program works not because not just because it is unobtrusive but because the algorithm which assigns ads to keywords is based on relevance as well as financial reward. Consumers will not block advertising that is useful to them. In fact, in the same way that the terminally hip seek out fashion magazines for their glossy campaigns, readers will seek out relevant web advertising to facilitate their favourite activity – spending money.

Solving the advertising paradox is not really a technology issue. Firefox and the growth of alternative media channels such as RSS aggregators may force the hand of publishers, but it is new patterns of consumer behaviour made possible by Web 2.0 which will drive the rethink of the commercial models which underwrite the cost and distribution of content. This is not the first time the warning has been given. When the web boom of the late nineties collapsed the world’s portals wrung their hands and acknowledged they could no longer go on flogging their inventory on a reach and frequency basis. Although various performance based models were discussed, most of those ideas vanished with the arrival of the second bubble which has kept publishers fat and well fed on their Web 1.0 sales models.

The clock is ticking. The irony this time round is that the pinprick that bursts the bubble won’t come from the fickle financial markets. Consumers will have figured it out long before.

Comments

[Craig Readon]

If firefox think they are going to take on MS on the back of adblocking, they should think again. Its only the geek community who are bothered about ads - except popups, which bother everyone.
CR

[tape to cd transfer]

Well this is very interesting indeed.

Regards
Tania

[Kitchen Cabinets Raleigh]

Thanks for such a nice post.

Regards